Survivor Tocantin: The Final Fire

The final four episode was everything we could have hoped for-- fun and interesting immunity challenges that JT barely won, dastardly scheming on the part of Stephen, JT, and Erinn, and a surprising million-dollar-risking choice by JT that actually solidified his standing with the jury.

The final tribal council revealed a surprising amount of contempt for Stephen, who it seems is perceived as having ridden the coattails of JT. It didn't look that way to me, and if JT had failed to get one of the final three immunity necklaces, Stephen may have been able to outmaneuver him and get the win himself.

JT's immunity run didn't really seem to establish him as a physical powerhouse. Instead, it just spoke to the physical weakness of the competition. His greatest strength lay in his ability to maintain an honest face while remaining in the thick of the scheming. At times, JT seemed woefully ignorant of the game, as when he seemed to realize in the finale that "there's seven jurors, so I need FOUR votes?" Was that thought, which all of the other players had been running permutable computations on for weeks, truly just occuring to JT for the first time? Or was he having us all on while masquerading as a country bumpkin? I still don't know, and that masterful ambiguity is what makes him a fitting winner.

I think we can all agree that, of all of the Survivor season winners, JT is by far the Gumpiest.


The Pool:

Not enough people got in their IPs for the final two challenges, and I didn't call for them, so I'm discounting the few that I did receive. So, for the finale, it's all about who got eliminated, and who among us made a good final four selection. Here's what happened when Taj got booted in fourth:

1st: Paul 519 (-9, +5, -6)
2nd: Dawn 498 (-1, -4, -9)
3rd: Matt 497 (-9, +5, -9)
4th: Carl: 488 (-3, -4, -6)
5th: Mom 484 (-3, -6, -6)
6th: Stats 452 (-3, -6, -9)
7th: Kim 434 (-10, -6, -3)
8th: Brian 428 (-9, -10, -6)
9th: Mike 401 (-12, -16, -12)



And then, when Erinn was bounced by JT in third, this is what the pool looked like:

1st: Paul 511 (-1, -4, -3)
2nd: Matt 483 (-1, -4, -9)
3rd: Dawn 455 (-10, -18, -15)
4th: Mom 454 (-2, -16, -12)
5th: Carl: 450 (-8, -18, -12)
6th: Brian 437 (-1, +5, +5)
7th: Stats 423 (-8, -12, -9)
8th: Kim 409 (-8, -8, -9)
9th: Mike 401 (-3, -2, +5)

Stephen made history by being the most likable person to ever get shut out in the final vote. Here's what his second place strikeout did to us:

1st: Paul 501 (-5, -2, -3)
2nd: Matt 474 (-1, -2, -6)
3rd: Mom 452 (-1, +5, -6)
4th: Carl: 450 (+5, -2, -3)
5th: Dawn 447 (-11, -2, +5)
6th: Stats 415 (-3, -2, -3)
7th: Brian 409 (-9, -10, -9)
8th: Kim 396 (-5, -4, -6)
9th: Mike 367 (-10, -14, -12)

Finally, we all got to see the somewhat-satisfying JT win. After checking him in at first place, here's the final RAW score, with the bonus points still unallocated:

1st: Paul 482 (-8, -16, +5)
2nd: Matt 447 (-8, -16, -3)
3rd: Carl: 430 (-5, -6, -9)
4th: Brian 418 (-1, +5, +5)
5th: Dawn 414 (-9, -12, -12)
6th: Mom 407 (-15, -18, -12)
7th: Stats 384 (-7, -12, -12)
8th: Kim 362 (-2, -14, -18)
9th: Mike 340 (-8, -10, -9)

And after a cool 75 points per correct finale pick? That's enough potential points flying around to change everything. Without further ado, here's how we stacked up:

8th Place: Mike
QUITTER (The Osten Taylor Award)

Final bonus: +75 (1 right)
Final Score: 415
Last Season Pool Finish: 6th, with 356 points
Mike was one of the least active players in the pool, so it's only fitting that he should end up on bottom. A nigh-random set of picks, replicated 3 times, meant that a few wrong choices had big repercussions, point-wise. If I were Mike's teacher, I'd have to say: "Mike would do better if he would only apply himself..."

7th Place: Kim
FIRST OUT (The Chicken Morris Award)

Final bonus: +75 (1 right)
Final Score: 437
Last Season Pool Finish: Third, with 417 points
Two seasons ago, Kim won the pool. Last season, she came in third. If this trend continues, next year she'll wind up with a negative score. Her biggest problems were having too much faith in the rascally Tyson, and not enough faith in JT. If she had reversed her predictions on those two players, she might have been a contender.

6th Place: Dawn
EARLY OUSTER (The Ashley Massaro Award)

Final bonus: +75 (1 right)
Final Score: 489
Last Season Pool Finish: 8th place, with 355 points
Dawn made a move towards respectability this season by climbing up to sixth place, but she still has a long way to go if she ever wants to get an Ultimate Survivor title. Her fatal flaw? She consistently placed Erinn as an early boot, and when Erinn made third place instead, it cost Dawn a bundle.

5th Place: Brian
PRE-MERGE BOOT (The Ibrehem Rahman Award)

Final bonus: +150 (2 right)
Final Score: 568
Last Season Pool Finish: NA
In his first pool, Brian checked out relatively early, and so his fifth place finish is actually a pretty remarkable achievement. His strategy was to put all of the young, attractive people winning. Was this a sign of mad genius on Brian's part, or is it simply that our cultural mores are hopelessly enmeshed in those same shallow values that Brian himself put into play? I'm not sure, but if Candace had gone the distance, Brian would have really been raking in the points.

4th Place: Carl
ALMOST MERGED (The Bobby Jon Drinkard Award)

Final bonus: +150 (2 right)
Final Score: 580
Last Season Pool Finish: 5th with 368 points
Carl improved slightly on his last season finish, but he's still stuck in the middle of the pack. He's been hovering just behind the pool leaders for a while now, but never struck that breakout blow that would have allowed him to move into the top. None of his picks were really disastrous, but they just weren't quite spot-on enough to move into the lead.

3rd Place: Matt
JURY MEMBER (The Rob Cesternino Award)

Final bonus: +150 (2 right)
Final Score: 597
Last Season Pool Finish: Second, with 418 points
I was right there with the pool leaders going into the finale, but each of the last four boots left me a little further from the lead. This is the third Survivor pool in a row in which I've gotten at least third, but not first. One day, I will win the title of Sole Survivor in this pool! A modest life goal, I realize, but there you have it.

2nd Place: Mom
SURVIVOR FINALIST (The Colby Donaldson Award)

Final bonus: +300 (4 right)
Final Score: 707
Last Season Pool Finish: First, with 454 points
For the second season in a row, Mom posted a pitch-perfect finale, correctly predicting the final four order of Taj, Erinn, Stephen and JT. She entered the night in fifth place, but jumped up to a close second. Combined with her first place finish from last season, this means that she must be cheating or something. Just kidding. Congratulations, Mom!

1st Place: Paul
SOLE SURVIVOR (The Richard Hatch Award)

Final bonus: +300 (4 right)
Final Score: 782
Last Season Pool Finish: 4th, with 379 points
Paul has been getting serious about these pools! He split a win with me in the Amazing Race, and has at least a chance to with the Dancing With the Stars Pool tonight, which would give him an unprecedented trifecta. But before we think about that, let's take a moment to consider Paul's victory. His perfect final four picks put him over the top, but that merely protected the lead he had already earned. Paul didn't have any one magical knockout pick, and he didn't even do particularly well on his immunity picks. But in every stage of the game, he accurately adapted his prediction sets to reflect the reality of the game. Hats off to Paul! For the rest of us, there's always next year!