Survivor Tocantin: We're Back!

Hello, folks!

I'm pleased to report that it is Survivor season, once again, and so you are once more given the opportunity to prove that you and you alone are the ultimate Survivor genius.

No pressure or anything.

This season, you can expect me to go light on the episode recaps, as three concurrent pools combined with my vocational transition are robbing me of much of my computer downtime.

Just a reminder, here are how our returning pool members have fared in seasons past:

1. Mom
The reigning Sole Survivor, Mom blew us all away by coming in first place in her first Survivor pool last year. Blood ties be damned, I'm gunning for her!

2. Matt
Over the last 2 seasons, I've ranked 3rd and 2nd. That means there's only one place for me to go: first place, here I come!

3. Kim
Kim came in 3rd last season, and first the season before, giving her the best cumulative record of us all. That is not why I married her (but it doesn't hurt).

4. Paul
With a mediocre 4th and 5th place (out of five) under his belt, Paul has room for improvement. Lots of room.

5. Carl
Carl also has a 4th and 5th place record, which is even worse, because he certainly put more thought into it than Paul did. It's like tying a monkey.

6. Mike
Last season, Mike was ruling the pool until a disastrous finale stranded him in an inglorious sixth place. He'll really have to work to do worse this time around.

7. Dawn
Dawn went from a second place finish two seasons ago to a pool-worst 8th place last season. We'll have to see whether she brought her A game this time around.

8. Brian
Brian is new to the pools, so we'll have to see if this prodigal Midwestern son is as smart as he seems. After this pool, I know I'll be calling him Brainiac-- but I'm not sure whether it will be ironic when I do so.

In addition, this season we will all be competing against a set of "Ghost Picks" based on a statistical analysis of the demographics of previous seasons. In this set, survivor contestants are ranked according to their age, gender, and ethnicity. I just thought it would be interesting to have a "scientifically determined" set of picks to compete against.

Based on last season's performances, everyone will start with a small handicap. Thus, the starting scores are as follows:

1st: Dawn 103
2nd: Mike 102
3rd: Carl: 101
4th: Paul 100
4th: Brian 100
4th: Stats 100
7th: Kim 99
8th: Matt 98
9th: Mom 97



Here are your current picks, having used only the CBS website as a basis for your predictions:


Carl:

16th: Sandy
15th: Candace
14th: Sydney
13th: Jerry
12th: Debra
11th: Erinn
10th: Tyson
9th: Benjamin
8th: Carolina
7th: Taj
6th: JT
5th: Spencer
4th: Sierra
3rd: Joe
2nd: Stephen
1st: Brendan



Mom:

16th: JT
15th: Joe
14th: Benjamin
13th: Brenda
12th: Debra
11th: Sydney
10th: Candace
9th: Tyson
8th: Carolina
7th: Taj
6th: Spencer
5th: Sandy
4th: Sierra
3rd: Stephen
2nd: Jerry
1st: Erinn



Matt:

16th: Sandy
15th: Sydney
14th: Candace
13th: Taj
12th: Spencer
11th: Joe
10th: Benjamin
9th: JT
8th: Debra
7th: Jerry
6th: Sierra
5th: Tyson
4th: Erinn
3rd: Carolina
2nd: Brendan
1st: Stephen




Dawn:

16th: Candace
15th: Joe
14th: Tyson
13th: Erinn
12th: Stephen
11th: Sydney
10th: JT
9th: Debra
8th: Sandy
7th: Brendan
6th: Spencer
5th: Taj
4th: Sierra
3rd: Jerry
2nd: Carolina
1st: Benjamin



Brian:

16th: Brendan
15th: Benjamin
14th: Debra
13th: Taj
12th: Sydney
11th: Stephen
10th: Spencer
9th: Sierra
8th: Sandy
7th: Carolina
6th: Joe
5th: Jerry
4th: Erinn
3rd: Tyson
2nd: JT
1st: Candace



Paul:

16th: Carolina
15th: Debra
14th: Tyson
13th: Taj
12th: Sandy
11th: Sierra
10th: Joe
9th: JT
8th: Jerry
7th: Stephen
6th: Sydney
5th: Benjamin
4th: Brenda
3rd: Candace
2nd: Erinn
1st: Spencer



Mike:

16th: Stephen
15th: Joe
14th: Candace
13th: Benjamin
12th: Taj
11th: Sierra
10th: Sandy
9th: JT
8th: Sydney
7th: Spencer
6th: Erinn
5th: Carolina
4th: Debra
3rd: Tyson
2nd: Jerry
1st: Brendan



Kim:

16th: Debra
15th: Sandy
14th: Taj
13th: Candace
12th: Carolina
11th: Erinn
10th: Brendan
9th: Joe
8th: Spencer
7th: Stephen
6th: Sydney
5th: Sierra
4th: Benjamin
3rd: JT
2nd: Jerry
1st: Tyson



Statistical Prediction:

16th: Sandy
15th: Sydney
14th: Sierra
13th: Debra
12th: Carolina
11th: Erinn
10th: Spencer
9th: Jerry
8th: JT
7th: Brendan
6th: Tyson
5th: Stephen
4th: Benjamin
3rd: Candace
2nd: Joe
1st: Taj

Good Luck, everyone!