Survivor: Week 11

The Episode

This was the first really exciting episode in a while, fueled by the fact that the ruling alliance was finally forced to start cannibalizing itself.

In the beginning, Matty called Ken out for voting against him at tribal council. There didn't seem to be any practical purpose for this vote, other than to show symbolic support for Bob and Corinne if it turned out that they were telling the truth about the fake idol.

It was pretty well established that Matty was now desperate to get out from under the thumb of Ken and Crystal, while Ken was gunning for Matty as the biggest physical threat. Any way you slice it, this was good news for Bob, unless he did something really stupid.

After taking flak from Matty, Ken paid it forward to Bob, attacking him for having lied about the immunity idol. Bob agreed to give Ken the next idol should he win it, which pacified Ken and also further solidified a strategic bond between the two of them.

The challenges in this episode were top-notch once again. The reward challenge rewarded a another combination of fitness and coordination. Contestants had to traverse an obstacle course of mud and ropes to retrieve 3 balls, one at a time. Each time they returned with a ball, they had to shoot it through a hoop, basketball-style. The first person to get all 3 balls through the hoop won reward, which was a trip to a gorilla refuge.

Matty was the fastest at going through the course, but in the end, it turned into a shooting contest between the three men, with Sugar and Crystal failing to shoot their first ball through the hoop. Bob proved once again that he is much better-coordinated than his younger rivals, and sank his third ball to win reward.

Bob got to take two people with him, so he picked Ken and Crystal. Interestingly, he also got to send someone to Exile Island, and he chose Susie. This meant that Bob, the obvious bootee, got to split the tribe up into groups of 3, 2, and 1, which is a very powerful thing at this stage in the game.

I'm not sure whether he made the best possible strategic choice, but it worked out for him in spades. Ken and Crystal agreed to target Matty instead of Bob. Ken also agreed that he might defer his acceptance of Bob's immunity idol, depending on whether he felt he would be in danger. Meanwhile, Matty attempted to convince Sugar to betray Ken and Crystal. She refused, but the seed was planted.

After the reward, there was a whole involved set of backstabs, double-crosses, and alliance shifts for various reasons. I like to think that this is Ken and Crystal reaping the rewards of their sometimes-terrible gameplay. They seemed to luck out time after time, and while they did make some shrewd decisions over the course of the game, it was always at the expense of the loyalty of the troops. Matty has been basically forced to do their bidding for the entire season, and he finally got a chance to make a break from them.

Going into the immunity challenge, their position was tenuous at best. The challenge was another creative, interesting one. The contestants were blindfolded. Using only their sense of touch, they had to identify the features of a totem face, navigate an obstacle course, retrieve three bags of loose totem features, and then correctly identify and plug in the correct features, Mr. Potato-style.

Crystal and Susie kept wandering off the course, and they are really not representing very well for women, are they?

So it came down to the men again, and once again, Bob's magic hands gave him the win. As Jeff pointed out, this is four challenge wins in a row for him against competitors who are half his age. He always seems to lose a little ground on the physical portion of the challenges, but then comes from behind to win.

With an immunity idol around Bob's neck, the tension ratcheted up yet another notch back at camp. Crystal insulted Matty, which roused Sugar's sympathies. Ken planned to hold Bob to his promise to give up the idol and then backstab Bob, but Sugar told Bob about Ken's plans.

Bob effectively gutted the agreement between himself and Ken by deciding that he, and not Ken, would decide whether Ken was in need of the idol that night. Even though this seems duplicitous of Bob, it's actually in keeping with the letter of the agreement, if not the spirit. Ken was supposedly going to decide who got the idol based on who was in more danger, and that's what Bob lived up to. The agreement wasn't supposed to expose Bob to danger when Bob himself was the only one on the chopping block. It was a stupid promise for Bob to make anyway-- or at least, a stupid promise to consider keeping.

At tribal council, Bob refused to give Ken the idol, based on the fact that he knew that no one was voting for Ken. Ken didn't like it, but he didn't really have any recourse.

Ken and Crystal failed to hold onto two of their three alliance-mates, and it turned into a slam dunk against them. Sugar added insult to injury by giving Matty her hidden idol (this was the last tribal council at which it could be used), thereby disqualifying their votes. So the official vote was 4-0 Crystal, sending her home.

Crystal and Ken should never have gotten this far in the game. Every tribal mixup wound up favoring them, and they also benefited from the defections of both Sugar and Susie. Ken did execute a risky maneuver by lying to Sugar about Ace, but they got Susie on a bye, essentially. During the later stages of the game, their alliance looked good on paper, but the human bonds that the game relies on were just non-existent. A strong alliance can sometimes overcome that, but a weak alliance can't.

The good news for Ken is that, with only five players left in the game, anything can happen. People are going to be worried about themselves, and without Crystal's undying loyalty, Ken is just another individual player in the game instead of a super-threat. With five players and no clear alliances, this might be the least predictable finale ever.

The Pool

Going into the finale, we still have a very tight pool. Mike fell out of first place in the rankings, and I have now taken the lead, fueled by the fact that I was the only one to have faith that Bob would take immunity this week.

The other big winner this week was Paul, who was the only one to actually gain points this week. In 2 of his 3 sets of predictions, he got five points for accurately predicting that Crystal would be ousted this week.

Here are the scores. They are presented as follows:
Current 1st picks score (- elimination, +IP) + Current 2nd picks score (- elimination) + Current 3rd picks score (- elimination) = Current Total Score

2nd: Matt 66 (-8 +24) + 147 (-6) + 298 (-12) = 511
1st: Mike 75 (-1) + 154 (-2) + 279 (-9) = 508
5th: Paul 72 (+5) + 129 (+5) + 304 (-6) = 505
3rd: Mom 72 (-7) + 131 (-6) + 282 (-12) = 485
4th: Carl 37 (-3) + 149 (-6) + 298 (-12) = 484
6th: Jen 38 (-9) + 146 (-6) + 293 (-6) = 477
7th: Kim 42 (-12) + 143 (-6) + 288 (-6) = 473
8th: Dawn 19 (-2) + 131 (-10) + 287 (-3) = 437

For the finale, we have some bonus points to hand out. Just send me one IP, and you will get points for each immunity challenge that that person wins in the finale (we're not even sure whether we're going to see 2 or 3 immunity challenges).

In addition, send me your prediction for how the final five will finish. If 3 people go before the jury, the second place finisher will be the person who gets the second highest number of jury votes. Each correct prediction will be worth 25 points, which means that everyone has a chance to win the pool

Good luck, everyone!